Silicon Metal Tug-of-War Between Longs and Shorts Sees Fluctuations, Polysilicon Largely Stable as Market Awaits Meeting Results [SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Conference Summary]

SMM Oct. 13:

Silicon metal

price

On Friday, SMM oxygen-blown #553 silicon in east China was at 9,400-9,500 yuan/mt, and #441 silicon was at 9,600-9,700 yuan/mt. In the futures market, the most-traded silicon metal futures contract closed at 8,685 yuan/mt on Friday, showing little change from the pre-holiday level. The silicon market saw a tug-of-war between longs and shorts, with prices fluctuating.

Production

In September 2025, domestic silicon metal production was 420,800 mt, up 35,100 mt or 9.1% MoM, but down 33,300 mt or 7.3% YoY. Cumulative silicon metal production from January to September 2025 totaled 3.0177 million mt, a decrease of 18.3% YoY. In October, the overall production schedule for silicon metal continues to indicate an increase, with output expected to rise MoM.

Inventory

Social inventory: As of Oct. 9, SMM statistics showed total social inventory of silicon metal in major regions was 545,000 mt, an increase of 2,000 mt from before the National Day holiday. This included 120,000 mt in general social warehouses, flat MoM, and 425,000 mt in social delivery warehouses (including unregistered warrants and spot portions), up 2,000 mt from pre-holiday. (Excluding Inner Mongolia, Gansu, etc.)

Polysilicon

Price

Over the weekend, N-type recharging polysilicon was quoted at 50.1-55 yuan/kg, with the N-type polysilicon price index at 52.37 yuan/kg. Granular polysilicon was quoted at 50-51 yuan/kg. Polysilicon prices remained temporarily stable over the weekend. As downstream crystal pulling plants had previously built up sufficient raw material inventories, market transactions were limited. With an industry conference expected to be held again soon, the market is awaiting the conference outcomes.

Production

Polysilicon production in October is expected to be around 132,500 mt, showing an increase from September and exceeding previous market expectations. Certain increments were seen in Qinghai, Sichuan, Xinjiang, etc., while Inner Mongolia saw mixed increases and decreases.

Inventory

Recently, polysilicon inventory has been on a rising trend, as the procurement pace of crystal pulling plants has slowed. In the short term, polysilicon production may still exceed demand, leading to relatively high inventory pressure.

Module

Price

Last week, the decline in low-priced modules from domestic module enterprises narrowed, and some module companies began implementing internal price limits for sales, slightly easing the low-price competition. However, current centralized installation by end-users still falls short of expectations. The reduction in projects continues to drive module companies' subsequent strategy to focus on securing orders with low prices. Furthermore, recent cost support has shown slight loosening. Module prices are expected to continue operating at low levels. Currently, distributed Topcon 183, 210R, and 210N high-efficiency modules are quoted at 0.673 yuan/W, 0.689 yuan/W, and 0.682 yuan/W, respectively, while centralized Topcon 182/183 and 210N high-efficiency modules are quoted at 0.659 yuan/W and 0.674 yuan/W, respectively.

Production

Module scheduled production is expected to decline slightly in October, as increasing enterprise losses are gradually reducing production willingness.

Inventory

In terms of weekly inventory, recent low-price transactions in the market have been favorable, leading to a slight decrease in module enterprise inventory levels.

High-Purity Quartz Sand

Price

Current domestic prices are: inner-layer sand at 58,000-64,000 yuan/mt, mid-layer sand at 25,000-31,000 yuan/mt, and outer-layer sand at 17,000-21,000 yuan/mt. Domestic high-purity quartz sand prices have remained stable recently, but in October, some crucible enterprises are expected to negotiate procurement prices; with weakening demand, quartz sand prices are projected to decline.

Production

Recent domestic sand enterprise operations remain at high levels, with top-tier enterprises expected to restore operations to above 50% soon; supply is projected to increase in October.

Inventory

Sand enterprise inventory continues to increase, while crucible enterprises currently have no plans for concentrated purchases, focusing mainly on just-in-time procurement.

PV Glass

Price

3.2mm single-layer coating: Quoted at 19.5-21 yuan/m², prices are stable.

3.2mm double-layer coating: Quoted at 20.5-22 yuan/m², prices are stable.

2.0mm single-layer coating: Quoted at 12.6-14 yuan/m², low prices in the domestic market are expected to decrease in October. Under the strategy of module plants prioritizing consumption of their own inventory, actual procurement volume is projected to decline rapidly. Glass enterprises offering discounts to take orders have led to a downward shift in market low prices, but mainstream transaction prices remain at 13 yuan/m².

2.0mm double-layer coating: Quoted at 13.6-15 yuan/m², prices have declined.

Production

Some domestic kilns are still resuming production in October. Although plans for new kiln startups have been delayed, overall production is expected to increase significantly in October.

Inventory

During the National Day holiday, market shipments declined rapidly. Against the backdrop of weakening module production schedules, glass industry inventory has risen to over 20 days.